Monday, January 3, 2011

Happy New Year From the Gadson Review!


Happy New Years! It’s always exciting when there’s a new year, not least because of all of the things that will happen in politics. Below is a list of important vents that will happen.
1. Whether the debt ceiling gets raised.

Congress will take up this issue in the spring. Democrats will argue that we should raise the debt ceiling amid a recession when government is needed to step in to spur the economy. Newly elected tea partiers will argue that they have a mandate from voters to rein in government spending and stop us from living on credit. Democrats control the White House and the Senate, so Republicans will have to stop the ceiling from being raised in the House where they hold a majority. Not raising the debt ceiling could cause a shut-down where government is unable to do much of anything. It is hard to tell who this benefits; Democrats could portray Republicans as preventing Social Security checks from going out to grandma, while Republicans could portray Democrats as unable to govern. If the ceiling gets raised, look for this to be a big issue in the 2012 election.

2. Whether Sarah Palin runs

Sarah Palin running would bring even more attention to the Republican primaries. And it would focus a lot of media attention on her and her nearest challengers. Those who aren’t top tier candidates might have trouble getting the attention they need. Ultimately, I think she won’t get the nomination, but her entry in the race would nonetheless have a lot of impact.

3. Judicial decisions on Obamacare

Several state attorney-generals want to repeal Obamacare. Others want to repeal the mandate, a key piece of Obamacare. Will the case make it to the Supreme Court? What will happen when it does? If Obamacare is struck down, it is a blow to Obama. He will have seen his signature achievement undone and the prospect of more reforms will be difficult since Republicans will have more power. However, perhaps Democrats will be able to craft a reform without a mandate.

I look forward to seeing how all of these issues are resolved!

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