Thursday, December 3, 2009

Sarah Palin Revisited...Again

Sarah Palin is on tour promoting her book. And a few conservatives, such as Matthew Dowd have written that they think she has a legitimate chance to be President one day.

I’ve long been skeptical of that, as I expressed in this post. There is just one way I think she can win the Republican nomination. That’s if Mike Huckabee does not run. As long as he does, I don’t see her getting sufficient number of evangelicals to vote for her to put her over the top. And she needs to dominate that demographic, because I’m not sure pro-business suburbanites will support her.

In his column, Dowd noted that every President that has an approval rating over 51% usually wins, while every President with one below 47% loses. The only time the challenger really matters is when the approval rating is between 47% and 51%. In that case, I really don’t see her winning. She’ll alienate social moderates with her hardline conservative views and rhetoric, and with less than a term as Governor of one of the nation’s most sparsely populated states, she’ll appear to lack gravitas to too many swing voters. They may not be crazy about Obama, but I think they’ll have too many doubts to pull the lever for Palin.

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