Friday, October 16, 2009

What Happens if Iran Gets the Bomb?

Iran may be close to acquiring a nuclear weapon. Can we live with that?

You could argue that rational deterrence means we can. If the Iranians ever used the bomb, the US or Israel would wipe them out. So logically, the Iranians would never use it. As obnoxious as Ahmadinejad is, he’s probably a rational actor, in the sense that he can understand what a risk using a nuclear weapon is to his own country.

Will Iran building up a nuclear arsenal cause nuclear proliferation in the region? I doubt it. If Israel’s nuclear arsenal hasn’t caused Muslim states to go nuclear, I don’t see why and Iranian bomb would.

What I do worry about is the bomb falling into the hands of rogue elements or states. My gut tells me Iran isn’t especially stable right now, and the next revolution could be around the corner. A state in the throes of revolution might not take the best security measures to protect its nuclear arsenal.

That’s the real reason to be concerned in my book.

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